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LED lighting in the frame of a resilient economy in 2020-2021
2021-12-01
Macro and sectorial trend during 2020 and 2021
GDP 2020-2021-2022

REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST. YEAR-ON-YEAR PERCENTAGE CHANGE. Source: CSIL processing of IMF data


According to CSIL latest studies, after a 6% decrease during 2020 the worldwide market for lighting fixtures will exceed again the 95 billion USD value during 2021 (+6.5%), a bit higher than the level of 2018 and 2019. Economic public bodies, both national and international (UE, MFI, etc.) are better reacting (for common consensus) to the Covid-19 emergency in comparison to the 2009 crisis. Huge country investments on the direction of a more green and resilient economy can have a positive impact on the lighting sector: at parity of spending, in 2025 humanity will have somewhat 20% more of lumens available, according to DoE (US department of Energy). If we focus on the LED segment, the 2020 slump has been minimal (-2%) and the 2021 growth is close to 10%. According to CSIL estimates, by the year 2024, 87 billion USD (out of a total 107 billion USD) of lighting will be LEDs.

RECOVERY AND VACCINE

Global economy is projected to grow 5.9% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022 (IMF, October 2021). The global economy projections have changed only marginally since July (IMF, July 2021) but the global recovery gap between countries persists. Forecasts reflect the divergence in economic prospects across countries, driven by a different approach to vaccine and disparities in policy support. A strong rebound in Europe, the likelihood of additional fiscal support in the United States next year, and lower household saving will boost growth prospects in the advanced economies. Falling numbers of new infections and hospitalisations, thanks to an effective containment strategy and progress in vaccination, have led EU Member States to reopen their economies, in particular to the benefit of service sector businesses. Upbeat survey results among consumers and businesses, as well as data tracking mobility, show that a rebound in consumption is already underway and set to strengthen in the coming months. In the United States, substantial additional fiscal stimulus and a rapid vaccination campaign have given a boost to the economic recovery. The unemployment rate will continue to fall. Rising wages, combined with government transfers and accumulated household savings, will propel consumption. China was the only major economy to grow in 2020 China's economic recovery continued in early 2021. despite localised virus outbreaks and the return of social distancing measures in parts of the country. Consumption is expected to remain an important driver of growth in both 2021 and 2022, supported by rising personal incomes, relatively low inflation, and improvements in the labour market. Global GDP is growing far more strongly than anticipated a year ago, but the recovery remains uneven, output and employment gaps remain in many countries, particularly in emerging-market and developing economies where vaccination rates are low. Large differences in vaccination rates among countries are adding to the unevenness of the recovery. Many advanced economies have seen remarkable progress in vaccinations, by contrast, most emerging market and developing economies have had a much slower rollout, hampered by lack of supply and export restrictions. Renewed outbreaks of the virus are forcing some countries to restrict activities, resulting in bottlenecks, and adding to supply shortages. Smooth and durable recoveries are not assured even in places where infections seem to be under control. The global community must step up efforts to ensure equitable vaccine access for every country, overcome vaccine hesitancy where there is adequate supply, and secure better economic prospects for all.

 
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